GDP In Developing World Shrinks

全球经济下滑正给全球新兴经济体带来沉重打击，几个月前还少有人能预见到这一问题的蔓延速度和严重程度。Getty Images巴西总统卢拉直到不久之前，许多投资者和经济学家还认为，这些国家或许可以提供一个应对其他国家增长不断放缓的防波堤。然而，一系列数据显示，新兴经济体去年年底实际上已整体陷入收缩，可能仍在继续萎缩。经济增长掉头下行的步伐令决策者和投资者猝不及防。就在数月间，许多国家的贸易和工业产值增长指标就从还说得过去坠入了深渊；甚至本国需求也遭受了沉重影响。亚洲经济体出现了最为彻底的收缩，但从拉美到东欧普遍也出现了显著的下滑。台湾周一公布，1月份出口额较上年同期下降了创纪录的44%，降至2005年以来的最低水平。上周巴西公布的去年12月工业产值较此前一个月历史性暴跌12.4%，这一数据震撼了巴西，导致巴西总统被迫出来安抚紧张情绪。韩国去年12月工业产值也较上年同期出现了有纪录以来的最大幅度下滑。纽约投资机构Traxis Partners的比萨特(Amer Bisat)表示，情况恶化的幅度非常显著。我们仍在追踪数据，目睹经济数据不断向下修正，这种势头在我记忆中是前所未有的。黯淡的经济数据给这些市场的股市和货币带来了沉重压力，持续时间超过投资者预期。在去年遭受重创之后，许多新兴市场货币仍然走势疲软。今年年初以来，韩圆兑美元已经贬值了大约8%。俄罗斯卢布和匈牙利福林兑美元下滑了14%左右。上周墨西哥比索兑美元触及了历史低点，促使该国政府入市实施干预。但低迷经济数据并未阻止一些发展中国家的股市今年出现上涨。这意味着投资者预计经济环境会出现迅速好转，认为全球风险偏好会持续回升；他们把宝押在了这两个不确定前景上面。各个股市的表现也有所区别：巴西和中国的基准股指今年回升了超过10%，而印度股市略有下跌，俄罗斯股市却下挫了10%。在去年下跌过半之后，截至上周五，今年以来以美元计价的摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets Index)仅下跌了2%，表现好于标准普尔500指数。新兴市场一直远离当前金融危机的震中，它们的银行体系也相对稳健。但新兴市场也遭受了一系列因素的打击：贸易不断下滑资本流动日益萎缩商品价格持续下跌。它们的国内需求也陷入低迷。外界曾普遍认为这些国家可以应对全球放缓，但这种观点遭遇了现实状况的挑战。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)驻纽约经济学家亨斯利(David Hensley)说，那种说法已经过时了。摩根大通预计，今年至少有11个新兴经济体（包括韩国台湾俄罗斯土耳其和墨西哥）会出现经济收缩，其他4个国家则会出现零增长。Associated Press巴西是最近一个经济形势急剧逆转的新兴市场。就在上个月，巴西财政部长还预计该国会有“不错的经济表现”，预计这个南美最大的经济体今年国内生产总值(GDP)会增长4%。但私人经济学家预期经济增长将急剧下滑，许多人现在预计巴西经济今年会出现零增长或增长微乎其微。巴西机械工具进口商协会会长托马斯•李(Thomas Lee)说，工业车床和压具的销售额已经降至正常水平的30%，是他15年来所见到的最糟糕局面。他说，工业不需要新工具，因为工厂正在减产。巴西汽车工业是大多数机械工具的主要买家，但去年9月份以来巴西国内汽车销量已经下滑了大约27%。不过，巴西股市基准的Bovespa指数今年上涨了12%。花旗集团(Citigroup)的拉美股市策略师丹尼斯(Geoffrey Dennis)表示，每个人都知道，经济状况越糟糕，央行就越有可能减息。这个问题只关系到衰退的持续时间，而不是衰退的程度。只要人们预计经济复苏即将到来，他们就会入市投资下注。经济学家和其他人士指出，今年下半年这种状况可能会有所好转。管理86亿美元资产的投资公司Emerging Markets Management的范艾格特梅尔(Antoine van Agtmael)说，新兴市场同样也会遭受冲击，这点无庸置疑。但它们重回增长道路的速度也会快于主要经济体。摩根大通经济学家预计，全球最大的新兴市场中国经济今年将增长7.2%，增速较2008年和2007年显著放缓。中国进出口额目前正以十年来最为严重的速度下滑，这不仅显示了全球需求疲软，也揭示了中国公司和消费者正在削减支出。中国政府已经作出反应，采取了大规模经济刺激计划和减息举措。1月份一个制造业指标出现了略微回升，但仍显示出制造业活动的收缩状况。韩国的经济指标去年年底开始呈现螺旋下滑趋势。韩国出口止住了飙升势头，1月份更是较上年同期下滑了超过30%；这种反转程度超过了1997-98年亚洲金融危机期间韩国出口所经历的下滑。根据瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)预计，台湾印尼和菲律宾今年的出口下滑幅度将超过1998年的情况。在那场危机中，这些国家还能够依靠美国等出口市场的持续强劲需求，相对迅速地实现复苏。但这次，它们可能就无法指望这一因素了。Joanna Slater / Antonio Regalado相关阅读林毅夫呼吁救助发展中国家 2009-02-10


The global downdraft is hitting the world's emerging economies with a speed and ferocity few imagined possible just months ago.Until recently, many investors and economists thought such countries could provide a bulwark against tanking growth elsewhere. Instead, a string of data suggests that emerging economies as a group actually contracted late last year, and might still be shrinking.The pace of the turnaround has caught policy makers and investors off guard. In a matter of months, gauges of growth in trade and industrial production in a number of countries went from passable to falling off a cliff; even domestic demand is suffering. Asia's economies have posted the starkest declines, but the slide is evident from Latin America to Eastern Europe.Taiwan said Monday exports in January plunged a record 44% from the same month last year, pushing them down to a level unseen since 2005. Last week, Brazil posted industrial production numbers for December that showed a historic tumble of 12.4% from the previous month, shocking the country and forcing its president to calm nerves. In South Korea, the December decline in industrial output over a year earlier was the largest since the country began keeping records.'The magnitude of the deterioration is nothing short of dramatic,' says Amer Bisat of investment firm Traxis Partners in New York. 'We're continually catching up with the data, and with continuing downward revisions, at a pace which to my mind is unprecedented.'The gloomy numbers threaten to keep stocks and currencies in these markets under pressure longer than investors expect. After getting hammered last year, many emerging-market currencies remain feeble. Since the start of the year, the South Korean won has shed about 8% of its value against the dollar; the Russian ruble and the Hungarian forint have weakened about 14% versus the greenback. Last week, the Mexican peso touched an all-time low versus the dollar, prompting the government to intervene in the foreign-exchange market.The dismal data haven't prevented some stock markets in developing countries from registering gains this year. That suggests investors are wagering on a rapid improvement in economic conditions and a continued recovery in global appetite for risky assets, both uncertain prospects.Performance has varied across stock markets: benchmark indexes in Brazil and China are up more than 10% this year, while India's is down slightly and Russia's has fallen 10%. After falling by more than half in 2008, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was down 2% in dollar terms since the beginning of the year as of Friday, outperforming the Standard & Poor's 500.Emerging markets have been far from the epicenter of the current financial crisis and their banking systems are relatively healthy. However, they are struggling with a series of blows: declining trade, shrinking capital flows and slumping commodity prices. Domestic demand also is going into reverse.That is challenging the commonly held view that these countries might cushion the global downturn. 'That story is past now,' says David Hensley, an economist at J.P. Morgan Chase in New York.J.P. Morgan forecasts at least 11 emerging economies -- among them South Korea, Taiwan, Russia, Turkey, and Mexico -- will shrink in 2009, with another 4 posting no growth.Brazil is the latest demonstration of the swift reversal of fortune in emerging markets. Just last month, the country's finance minister predicted 'good economic results' and GDP growth of 4% in 2009 for South America's largest economy. But forecasts by private economists are in freefall, and many now predict no growth or very little this year.Thomas Lee, president of Brazil's association of machine tool importers, says sales of industrial lathes and presses are down to 30% of normal levels, the worst falloff he's seen in 15 years. 'There's no need for new tools, because production is decreasing,' he says. Most machine tools are sold to Brazil's automobile industry, where domestic vehicle sales are off by about 27% since September.Still, Brazil's benchmark Bovespa index is up 12% this year. 'Everyone knows that the worse the economy gets, the more the central bank is going to cut interest rates,' says Geoffrey Dennis, Latin America stock strategist at Citigroup. 'This is all about the length of the recession, not the depth. As long as people can see a recovery coming, they will bet on that.'Economists and others point out that the picture may improve in the second half of this year. Emerging markets 'will suffer along with everybody else, no question about it,' says Antoine van Agtmael, who oversees $8.6 billion at Emerging Markets Management. But 'they'll get back on their growth path faster than the major markets.'J.P Morgan economists predict that China, the behemoth of the emerging world, will grow 7.2% this year, a major deceleration compared to 2008 and 2007. Chinese imports and exports are falling at their worst rates in a decade, a sign not only of weak global demand, but of a retrenchment by Chinese companies and consumers.The Chinese government has responded with an aggressive stimulus package and interest-rate cuts. A gauge of manufacturing posted a slight rebound for January, but is still signaling a contraction in activity.In South Korea, economic metrics began spinning backwards late last year. Surging exports from its ports stalled and then fell more than 30% in January over a year earlier, a reversal that has outpaced declines the country experienced during the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98.In 2009, Taiwan, Indonesia, and the Philippines are expected to see export declines that outstrip what they experienced in 1998, according to Credit Suisse.During that crisis, countries were able to recover relatively quickly by relying on export markets like the U.S. to keep buying their goods -- something they may not be able to count on this time around.Joanna Slater / Antonio Regalado