Summers Crafts Broad Role in Reshaping Economy

2月6日，在美国公布了黯淡的就业报告后一小时，劳伦斯•萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)来到椭圆形办公室，向奥巴马总统作每日经济形势汇报。这位白宫首席经济顾问以计量经济学般的精确对奥巴马说，这项正在参议院修改的8,000亿美元经济刺激法案，有大约80%的可能性──80%至84%──创造出符合奥巴马原来预期的就业机会。奥巴马追问，究竟是“83%还是84%”，他显然是在打趣萨默斯量化一件事成败几率的习惯。萨默斯不愿像其他人那样向总统汇报时用“可能”“不大可能”等词语，而不正面作答。Andrew Councill For The Wall Street Journal美国国家经济委员会主席萨默斯萨默斯那天晚些时候回忆说，他和奥巴马一直在就如何扭转不断恶化的经济形势进行对话，在这些令人神色黯淡的对话中，这是少有的轻松时刻。萨默斯在他设在白宫那间装饰简 的办公室接受采访时说，这是一个我从未设想过的黯淡局面，我认为这些危机将载入史册。身为总统经济政策顾问机构美国国家经济委员会(National Economic Council)的负责人，萨默斯理应在奥巴马政府制定刺激经济拯救银行业控制预算赤字和金融监管计划时发挥作用。但他的影响范围还要更广泛，已经涉足到医疗保健改革创造环保型就业岗位以及救助美国汽车生产商的政策制定和政治角力中。他说，真正的挑战是采取措施让美国经济重新发挥出潜能。萨默斯也面临着个人挑战，这一挑战贯穿于他整个职业生涯：控制自己心直口快的毛病。他一直因这个毛病而受害不浅。没人会说萨默斯在寻找经济解决方案方面缺乏创意，大家只是觉得他表达自己想法的方式有时让人难以接受。据知情人士透露，虽然奥巴马政府就职没有几天，54岁的萨默斯已经在银行业救助计划上与财政部长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)在节能环保措施对美国经济的影响方面与美国环境保护署署长布朗纳尔(Carol Browner)发生了争执，并对他手下提出的经济政策建议发出了诘难。美国总统经济顾问委员会(Council of Economic Advisers)主席克里斯蒂娜•罗默(Christina Romer)已经多次领教了萨默斯的强势个性，她说，与萨默斯进行强硬的公开辩论，就是尊重他的最佳体现。萨默斯的立场突出表明，美国政府在如何解决眼下经济危局方面正承受着显著压力。当前形势要求萨默斯和其他对金融体系有深入了解的政府官员立即采取行动，但也需要政府各决策部门在互谅互让基础上形成共识，拿出一套复杂的面面俱到的解决方案，内容涉及新的支出计划减税以及为美国金融体系重新制定规则等诸多方面。萨默斯的父母都是经济学家，他在自己职业生涯的初期就已成为知名经济学家。他曾担任世界银行(World Bank)首席经济学家，之后在克林顿政府时期进入财政部工作，并接替罗伯特•鲁宾(Robert Rubin)出任财政部长。萨默斯在2001至2006年期间担任哈佛大学(Harvard University)校长，最终因一些有关妇女的言论被迫辞职。一些妇女认为他这些言辞的意思是，妇女在科学和数学方面不如男子擅长。据国会联合经济委员会负责人众议员卡罗琳•马洛尼(Carolyn Maloney)说，萨默斯虽然近年来一直在哈佛大学教书，但他已成为深受民主党人喜爱的经济学家，给国会的民主党领袖们提供了不少帮助。外界普遍认为萨默斯的抱负不会限于目前的职位。他一直被外界看好为是美联储主席的可能人选，如果奥巴马在2010年伯南克任满后决定不再让他连任的话，这个职位届时就有空缺。萨默斯驳斥这些问题都是臆断；他说，现在自己有大量艰巨的实际问题要集中精力应对。考虑到经济的黯淡前景，萨默斯已经取消了春季的网球营计划。萨默斯通常会与盖特纳以及克林顿政府其他经济同僚参加这一活动；这些人员包括萨奇斯(Lee Sachs)和斯普林(Gene Sperling)。萨奇斯估计会在盖特纳手下出任负责国内政策的副财长；斯普林是盖特纳的顾问，曾任国家经济委员会主席。这个小组认为今年他们不能一起参加活动。萨默斯谈到他的网球营伙伴时说，这些天我们互相见了很多次面了。萨默斯目前的工作之一是每天向奥巴马提供一份经济简报。这是新政府的一项创新，其模板是美国国家情报主管长期以来向总统提供的每日情报简报。萨默斯试图在每份简报中提出一个当日话题，并引入不同政府专家的意见。在上周的一次汇报中，萨默斯为奥巴马提供了一份30页的报告，概述了加强金融监管的各种选择方案，并请前美联储主席沃克尔(Paul Volcker)主持进行讨论。沃克尔曾在大选中为奥巴马出谋划策，上周五他公布了新的经济复苏顾问小组成员。萨默斯还在其他简报中谈到了医疗问题，并具体谈到了医疗改革前提下，经济刺激计划和预算计划可以进行的调整。这位前哈佛大学经济学家一直坚持从事第一手研究。上周六晚间参加苜蓿草俱乐部(Alfalfa Club)宴会时，萨默斯同时也带着一项任务，即与大家一起收集总统经济刺激计划如何才能取得实效的证据。在看见一位汽车业管理人士时，萨默斯向他了解汽车销量方面的信息，以评估消费需求状况。作为国家经济委员会的主席，萨默斯应该是奥巴马的忠实代理人，调解政府不同派别在经济政策方面的分歧。本周早些时候萨默斯就扮演了这一角色，当时政府官员正在落实定于周三宣布的计划，对接受联邦资金的金融机构高管薪酬实施新限制。据一位与会人士透露，当时盖特纳希望给华尔街公司一点灵活性以吸引顶尖人士，而白宫幕僚长伊曼纽尔(Rahm Emanuel)则想对公司的高昂薪酬计划痛下重手，萨默斯在其中担纲了调解人的角色。但一些竞争对手认为，萨默斯借助自己白宫西翼办公室和接近总统的便利条件，不时推销自己的议程，而没有始终传递其他人的意见。一位民主党顾问表示，萨默斯会在白宫走廊内做交易。如果他看到总统或伊曼纽尔，他就会迎上前去。谈到自己喜欢施压别人的倾向，萨默斯说，这种施压实际上并不是因为我个人有什所图，大多数情况是因为我希望帮助那些意见获得它们本应有的重视。Monica Langley


An hour after the release of Friday's grim jobs report, Lawrence Summers was in the Oval Office giving President Barack Obama his daily economic briefing. The chief White House economic adviser told his boss with econometric precision that there was a roughly 80% chance -- 'in the low 80s' -- that the $800 billion stimulus bill being revised in the Senate would create as many jobs as Mr. Obama's original proposal.The president asked whether that is '83% or 84%,' poking fun at Mr. Summers's tendency to quantify an event's chances and shun the usual briefer's hedges of 'likely' and 'unlikely.'It was a rare bit of a humor, recounted by Mr. Summers later in the day, in a continuing bleak dialogue between the two men as they try to figure out how to correct the nation's worsening economy. In an interview in his spartan White House office with only a few papers and Diet Coke on his desk, Mr. Summers said: 'It's a grave situation that I never envisioned. I thought these crises would stay in the history books.'As he helps to devise economic policy from his perch running the National Economic Council, Mr. Summers is instrumental in shaping the Obama administration's plans on economic stimulus, bank bailouts, budget deficits and financial regulation. But the scope of his influence is broader -- getting into the policy and politics of health-care reform, environment-friendly jobs and Detroit auto makers. 'The real challenge is to do things to jolt the economy back to its potential,' he said.He faces a personal challenge as well, one that has existed throughout his professional life: to control his tendency to say exactly what he thinks, which has gotten him into trouble. No one argues that Mr. Summers isn't innovative in finding economic solutions -- they just find his style sometimes abrasive.In these early days of the Obama administration, Mr. Summers, 54 years old, has already tussled with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner over the bank-bailout plan, energy and environment czar Carol Browner on the effect of green changes on the economy, and pushed some staff members hard on their economic-policy proposals, said people who have been in the meetings. One person who has been on the receiving end of his forceful personality, Council of Economic Advisers chief Christina Romer, said a tough public debate with Mr. Summers is 'the ultimate sign of respect.'Mr. Summers's stance highlights an underlying tension in how Washington is dealing with the economic meltdown. It requires immediate action from him and other officials with a deep understanding of the financial system, but also a need to build camaraderie and consensus to craft a complex, multifaceted package, ranging from new spending and tax cuts to rewriting the rules for how America's financial system works in the 21st century.The son of economists, Mr. Summers has been a star economist since early in his career. He served as the chief economist for the World Bank and then as a Treasury official in the Clinton administration, succeeding Robert Rubin to become Treasury secretary.From 2001-2006, he was president of Harvard University, ultimately resigning under pressure for remarks some women interpreted as a suggestion that females aren't as adept in science and math as men. In recent years, while teaching at Harvard, Mr. Summers has become a favorite economist for Democrats, helping the Democratic leadership in Congress, according to Rep. Carolyn Maloney, head of the congressional Joint Economic Committee.Mr. Summers is widely seen as having ambitions beyond his current job. He has long been described as a possible chairman of the Federal Reserve -- a job that could come open as soon as 2010, if Mr. Obama chose not to reappoint Ben Bernanke when his term runs out.Mr. Summers dismisses those questions as 'hypotheticals,' saying 'there are enough really hard actual questions' for him to focus on.With the gloomy prospects for the economy, Mr. Summers has already canceled his spring plans for tennis camp -- which he usually attends with Mr. Geithner and other Clinton administration economic alumni: Lee Sachs, expected to be Mr. Geithner's undersecretary for domestic policy, and Gene Sperling, a Geithner adviser who held the NEC job Mr. Summers now has.The group decided they couldn't leave en masse this year. 'We're all seeing plenty of each other these days,' Mr. Summers said of his usual campmates.As part of his current job, Mr. Summers runs daily economic briefings for Mr. Obama -- an innovation of the new White House, modeled on the daily intelligence briefings long given to presidents by the director of national intelligence. Mr. Summers tries to come up with a 'topic of the day,' and always brings in different administration experts.At a briefing last week, Mr. Summers provided Mr. Obama with a 30-page book outlining options to beef up financial regulation. He asked former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker -- an Obama adviser during the campaign who Friday unveiled his new economic-recovery panel of advisers -- to lead the discussion. Other briefings have included health care, particularly on changes that can be made in the economic-stimulus and budget plans in anticipation of a health-care overhaul.The former Harvard economist is constantly doing his own first-person research. At the Alfalfa Club dinner this past Saturday night, Mr. Summers worked the room with a mission -- gathering evidence on how the president's economic-stimulus package could work. When he saw an auto-industry official, he pushed for information on car sales to gauge the state of consumer demand.As NEC director, Mr. Summers is also supposed to be Mr. Obama's honest broker, mediating disputes over economic policy from disparate parts of the administration. He did that earlier this week, as officials were finalizing plans for a Wednesday announcement setting new limits on executive pay for financial firms receiving federal funds. Mr. Summers mediated between Mr. Geithner, who wanted some flexibility for Wall Street firms to attract top talent, and White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, who wanted a 'hard-hitting crackdown' on exorbitant pay packages, said one participant.But some rivals see Mr. Summers as using his West Wing office and proximity to the president to sometimes promote his own his agenda, not always to sift through those of others. Mr. Summers will 'do business in the White House corridors,' said one Democratic adviser. 'If he sees the president or Rahm, he'll plunge ahead.'Regarding his tendency to push people, Mr. Summers said 'the pushing is not really because I have an agenda -- in most cases it's because I want to help the arguments be as strong as they can possibly be.'Monica Langley