Regulator Starts To Crimp China's Banks

今年中国银行业新增贷款的迅猛增长引发了诸多忧虑。中国银监会就是最忧心忡忡的机构之一。中国银监会正在考虑发布新规定，要求银行将次级债券从资本中剔除，希望以此限制信贷猛增势头。今年上半年，中国银行业已经发行了价值310亿美元的此类债券，达到了去年全年发行规模的三倍。如果银行计算资本充足率时不再包括次级债券，对发放新贷款的缓冲资本也会随之下降。中国工商银行和交通银行已经公布了上半年业绩，两家银行的核心资本比率都出现了下滑。这其中还存在系统性风险，因为51%的次级债都是在银行间交叉持有的。不过，在采取措施改善银行资本质量的同时，中国银监会正准备应对未来数年银行帐面不断恶化的状况──这是中国银行业近期大举放贷热潮的一个意料之中的后果。但一定程度上受到信贷热潮的影响，这方面的迹象还不明显。尽管坏帐的绝对水平尚未增加，但贷款总规模已经明显膨胀。因此，交通银行的不良贷款比率从去年12月底的1.92%下滑至6月底的1.51%，同期工商银行的不良贷款率从2.29%降至1.81%。坏帐问题明显恶化可能尚须时日。惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)列出了中国银行业承认坏帐行动迟缓的几大原因，其中包括了普遍的贷款展期或延长贷款期限。很多此类贷款最后都成了“关注类贷款”，从谨慎的角度来看，这些贷款也应该被列为坏帐。这可能会对交通银行产生明显影响：该行的此类贷款是不良贷款规模的两倍以上。在监管部门的推动下，中国银行业预见到未来存在的风险，正纷纷上调他们的坏帐拨备。但如果考虑到这些关注贷款规模的话，大多数银行的拨备还远远不够。中国银监会正在考虑这个问题。但需要采取更多举措才能揭示出中国银行业的真正健康状况。Andrew Peaple相关阅读报导：中国计划提高银行业资本金要求 2009-08-21中国银行业上半年不良贷款率下降 2009-08-10银监会要求城商行把资本充足率提至12% 2009-08-05报导：中国拟收紧银行金融衍生品交易 2009-08-04中国拟限制银行用次级债充实资本基础 2009-08-03 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', '601939.SH'));中国建设银行股份有限公司（简称：建设银行）英文名称：China Construction Bank Co.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：601939document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', '601328.SH'));交通银行股份有限公司（简称：交通银行）英文名称：Bank of Communications Co.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：601328document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', '600036.SH'));招商银行股份有限公司（简称：招商银行）英文名称：China Merchants Bank Co.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：600036document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', '601988.SH'));中国银行股份有限公司（简称：中国银行）英文名称：Bank Of China Ltd.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：601988document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', '0349.HK'));中国工商银行（亚洲）有限公司（简称：工银亚洲）英文名称：Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (Asia) Ltd.总部地点：香港上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：0349document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', '3988.HK'));中国银行股份有限公司英文名称：Bank of China Ltd.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：3988document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', '3968.HK'));招商银行股份有限公司（简称：招商银行）英文名称：China Merchants Bank Co.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：3968document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', '0939.HK'));中国建设银行股份有限公司（简称：建设银行)英文名称：China Construction Bank Co.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：0939document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', '3328.HK'));交通银行股份有限公司（简称：交通银行）英文名称：Bank of Communications Co.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：3328document.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', 'AGBC.YY'));Agricultural Bank of China总部地点：中国大陆股票代码：ABCdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', 'BCMXY'));Bank of Communications Co. (ADS)总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：NNOTC股票代码：BCMXYdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年08月21日18:49', 'ICBAF'));Industrial & Commercial Bank Of China (asia) Ltd.总部地点：香港上市地点：NNOTC股票代码：ICBAF


A surge in lending by China's banks this year is causing much worry. Among those most concerned: China's banking regulator.The China Banking Regulatory Commission is considering new rules that could crimp the loan expansion by disqualifying subordinated debt from being counted as bank capital. Chinese banks have been issuing such debt at a hefty rate - $31 billion's worth in the first half, triple the amount in 2008 as a whole.Take that out of capital adequacy calculations, and it leaves banks with less of a cushion against which to make new loans. Already, at the two big banks to report first half earnings - ICBC and Bank of Communications - core capital ratios fell in the first six months of the year.There's a systemic risk here also, with 51% of the subordinated debt issuance held by other Chinese banks.But the move to improve the quality of bank capital also comes as the CBRC is bracing itself for deteriorating loan books in the next few years - an expected consequence of the recent unabated lending spree.It isn't evident yet, thanks in part to that very spree. While absolute levels of bad loans haven't yet ticked up, the amount of total loans has ballooned.So, BoCom's non-performing loan ratio declined to just 1.51% at the end of June from 1.92% at the end of December, with ICBC's down to 1.81% from 2.29% over the same period.It could be a while before there's a significant worsening. Fitch Ratings highlights several reasons why Chinese banks are slow to recognize bad loans, including widespread loan rollovers and maturity extensions.A number of such balances end up as 'special mention loans,' which prudence suggests should also be classified as bad. That would make a big difference: at BoCom, the balance of such loans is more than double those classified as non-performing.Spurred by the regulator, Chinese banks are upping their bad loan provisions, in anticipation of trouble down the road. But provisioning levels will still fall way short at most banks if these special mention loans were counted.The CBRC is on the case. But there's much more to do before a true picture of the health of China's banks emerges.Andrew Peaple