IBM-Sun: Another Yahoo?

Sun电子计算机公司(Sun Microsystems Inc.)现在拒绝国际商业机器公司(IBM)的收购要约，以后只会追悔莫及？答案或许只有到一年之后才能见分晓，但Sun再也找不到比雅虎公司(Yahoo)更好的前车之鉴了。网络搜索和广告公司雅虎去年夏天拒绝了微软(Microsoft)每股42美元的收购报价，现在股价已经跌到了13.11美元。Sun正在进行艰苦的讨价还价，敦促IBM提高目前磋商中每股9.10-9.40美元的价格。正如今天《华尔街日报》文章所指出的，谈判的最后阶段总是充满着边缘策略，最后反而会绝处逢生。Sun还希望IBM遵守任何可能出现的监管要求。IBM拥有服务器市场32%的市场份额，而Sun拥有10%的份额；因此监管部门很有可能会盯上这样的强强交易，可能会要求IBM出售部分业务以保证交易获得批准。很多公司认为奥巴马政府对美国企业的态度不利于并购而且多变，因此IBM不愿轻率冒险地作出任何政治方面的承诺。IBM的报价已经对Sun估值过高了，几位分析师也对据说IBM正在讨论的将近100%的溢价感到大惑不解。目前这桩交易更大的威胁是，IBM的报价太高了，以致于很可能会皤然反悟，不会当太长时间的冤大头。毕竟，这桩拟议交易将是IBM规模最大的一个交易，也不符合IBM通过小规模收购扩大现有业务的一贯策略。瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)分析师肖普(Bill Shope)在3月18日本报率先报导双方谈判时写道，通过这次收购，IBM是在对一个长期前景最为严峻的服务器领域加大赌注。我们看来，这次收购没有什么战略意义，而100%的溢价似乎过于冒险了。我们下面从Sun的股价走势来看看这桩交易。在IBM提出报价之前，Sun的股价走势低迷，去年11月24日触及了2.60美元的52周低点，IBM接洽的时候还不到5美元。该公司股价在去年5月创下了52周高点16.37美元。Sun可能押注熊市正在结束，市场反弹也会带动公司股价回升。如果真是这样，那就和雅虎的遭遇正好相反；雅虎拒绝微软报价后不久，市场就从去年秋天开始急剧下滑。不过Sun 2008财年的问题也不能完全怪股市。据瑞银(UBS)的研究，Sun的股价下跌了79%，而其他硬件公司的股价跌幅只有45%。Sun正在实施第九次重组，计划削减成本并继续裁减员工。分析师们认为该公司难有其他买家，因为其大多数成本削减都是在研发销售一般以及行政支出方面，可能会削减销售部门以及财会等后勤部门的规模。唯一可能得益于此类削减的其他公司或许是戴尔(Dell)和惠普(Hewlett-Packard)等其他服务器生产商，但两家公司似乎都对此兴趣寡然。瑞银分析师乌姆(Maynard Um)在3月18日撰文质疑Sun作为独立公司能否继续削减成本。他写道，考虑到目前的相对低效，Sun存在着重组的空间。我们认为IBM有能力更快地削减成本。然而，从Sun对高端服务器业务的依赖以及软件业务的有限盈利能力来看，该公司的收入会在2009财年和2010财年继续承压。目前对Sun不进行交易的前景最清醒的论断来自该公司首席财务长。瑞银分析师乌姆说道，Sun首席财务长在2月份很谨慎地不愿发出类似“危机浮现结束迹象”之类的信号。“我们认为Sun的收入将继续面临困难，股票的命运将取决于成本削减。”拒绝了IBM的报价，Sun必须比观察人士更加坚信其成本削减能够获得成功。Heidi Moore相关阅读与IBM谈判搁浅  Sun及其CEO前景存疑 2009-04-07IBM收购Sun的谈判濒临破裂 2009-04-06IBM收购Sun：100%溢价为哪般？ 2009-03-20IBM属意Sun 科技业并购再起波澜 2009-03-19 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月07日16:46', 'HPQ'));惠普公司英文名称：Hewlett-Packard Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：HPQdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月07日16:46', 'IBM'));International Business Machines Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：IBMdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月07日16:46', 'DELL'));戴尔公司英文名称：Dell Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：DELLdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月07日16:46', 'JAVA'));Sun电子计算机公司（又名：升阳电脑)英文名称：Sun Microsystems Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：JAVAdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月07日16:46', 'YHOO'));雅虎公司英文名称：Yahoo! Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纳斯达克股票代码：YHOO


Is Sun Microsystems going to let go of IBM's takeover offer now, only to regret it later?The answer perhaps might be seen only from the rear-view mirror a year from now, but the computer and software maker need look no further for a cautionary tale than Yahoo. The Web search and advertising company last summer rejected Microsoft's $42-a-share bid and its shares were trading recently at $13.11.Sun is driving a hard bargain, pushing IBM for a better price than the $9.10 to $9.40 a share on the table. As today's Wall Street Journal article notes, late-state negotiations often full of brinksmanship.Sun also wants IBM to comply with any regulatory request that comes down the pike. IBM has 32% of the server market and Sun has 10%, so it is a good bet regulators would take an interest in such a combination, perhaps asking Big Blue to sell some businesses to get a deal to go through. Many companies view the Obama administration as merger unfriendly and mercurial in its approach to corporate America, and so IBM is reluctant to make any dicey political promises.The IBM offer is flattering to Sun, and several analysts were scratching their heads over the initial premium of nearly 100% IBM was said to have been discussing. The bigger danger might be that IBM's offer was too flattering and that Big Blue's infatuation won't last.After all, the proposed deal would be one of the biggest IBM has ever done and is inconsistent with IBM's usual plan of boosting its existing businesses with small acquisitions. Credit Suisse analyst Bill Shope wrote on March 18, when The Wall Street Journal first reported the talks, 'With the acquisition, IBM is doubling down on one of the most secularly challenged segments in servers. In our view, the acquisition makes little strategic sense and the 100% premium seems aggressive.'Then look at the deal through the prism of Sun's stock. Before the IBM offer, Sun shares had been hammered, hitting a 52-week low of $2.60 on Nov. 24 and under $5 when IBM approached. That compares with the 52-week high of $16.37 last May. Sun could gamble that the bear market is over and that any rebound will take Sun's shares with it. That would be a reverse of what happened at Yahoo, whose rejection of the Microsoft offer was followed shortly by the market's headlong plunge that began in the fall. But the stock market wasn't solely to blame for Sun's troubles in 2008. Its stock fell 79%, compared with the 45% decline of other hardware companies, according to UBS research.Sun is on its ninth restructuring to cut costs and continues to slice jobs. Analysts don't see another bidder on the horizon, because most of the cost cuts would be in research & development as well as selling, general and administrative expenses, which would include cuts in the sales force and back-office functions of payroll and accounting. The only other companies who could take advantage of such cuts would be other server-makers like Dell and Hewlett-Packard, and neither looks inclined toward a deal.UBS analyst Maynard Um on March 18 questioned Sun's ability to keep cutting costs as a standalone company: 'There is a potential restructuring story given relative inefficiencies. We do think IBM would be in a position to take out cost more quickly, however, we expect Sun revs to continue to be pressured in [fiscal year 2009 and fiscal year 2010] given its reliance on high end servers and limited ability to monetize its software.'The most sobering perspective on Sun's chances without a deal come from the company's own chief financial officer. According to UBS analyst Um, in February, 'Sun's CFO was careful not to signal a line of sight on 'light at the end of the tunnel.' We believe Sun's top line will continue to be challenging and that the fate of shares rest on cost cutting.' In rejecting IBM's offer, Sun must be more confident than observers in the success of its cutting costs.Heidi Moore