US Holds Balance Of Power

美国正处在一项大规模结构性变革的初期阶段，美国人逐渐开始减少举债增加储蓄，在支出方面也比过去精打细算得多。鉴于美国人既负债过多又消费过度，美国经济不得不经历的调整将是痛苦的。不过，这些调整将大多发生在美国以外，因为美国消费者购买的东西大多产自国外。从1998年至2008年期间，美国消费者支出占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重从67.2%上升至70.5%。如果消费支出占GDP的比重回落至十年前的水平，将会减少4,700亿美元。美国的进出口已经双双大幅下挫。经济学家们预计，周四公布的2月份贸易数据将显示，美国当月贸易逆差为360亿美元，与1月份的6年来最低水平相同，大大低于上年同期的620亿美元。现在的问题是，一旦美国经济稳定下来，美国的贸易数据将会怎样。美国从其他国家进口的大多是消费品，没有这些进口消费品美国人或许也能过日子，而美国的出口产品中却有许多是机械和高科技产品，其他国家想放弃不买并不容易。当我们用一个国家生产了多少东西来衡量其经济表现时，中国一类的国家处境可能将比美国不利得多。Justin Lahart相关阅读美国1月份储蓄率创近14年来最高水平 2009-03-02美国消费者节俭的两难处境 2009-02-04美国家庭终于开始存钱 2009-01-06


America is in the early stages of a massive structural change, with people moving toward borrowing less, saving more and being far more careful with their spending. With the country both overbanked and overstored, the adjustments that the economy will have to go through will be wrenching.Much of the adjustment, however, will occur outside of the U.S., where much of what American consumers purchase is made.From 1998 to 2008, consumer spending rose to 70.5% of gross domestic product from 67.2%. If spending's share of GDP were to lurch back to its decade-ago level, it would fall by $470 billion.The U.S. already has seen both imports and exports dry up. When February trade figures are released Thursday, economists expect they will show the trade deficit at $36 billion, equal to January's six-year low and well below the year earlier's $62 billion. The question is what will happen to the trade figures once the economy stabilizes.While much of what the U.S. buys from other countries counts as consumer wares people might do without, a lot of what the U.S. exports includes stuff like machinery and technology goods that aren't as easy to forgo. As we measure economic performance by how much a country produces, places like China could be in for a far rockier ride than the U.S.Justin Lahart