Is the Rally In Baltic Index A Storm Surge?

遭受风暴冲击的投资者在海上看到了希望。衡量原材料海运成本的波罗的海干散货航运指数(Baltic Dry Index)目前较12月份的22年低点反弹了174%。该指数被普遍视为一个领先指标。它的这一走势是全球经济衰退略有缓解的最新迹象。海运成本可能已经触及本轮周期的底部。但波罗的海干散货航运指数可能释放错误的经济信号，至少过去两年曾两次出现这种情况。该指数2007年夏秋两季大幅飙升，对近在咫尺的衰退似乎全然不觉。2008年春季该指数更是升至创纪录高点，而当时金融市场和经济正在酝酿又一次跳水。波罗的海干散货航运指数受到中国大宗商品需求的显著影响。去年，雪灾奥运会和其他以中国为主角的现象引发了该指数的大起大落。目前这波上涨行情主要是由于中国在春节假期过后开始增加铁矿石库存所致。许多观察人士怀疑，这轮增加库存的操作未必能持续多长时间，且预计除中国以外的市场对原材料并无多少兴趣。希望证实原材料市场需求走势的投资者可能需要看看其他地方的情况。比如可以从全球最大钢铁企业安赛乐米塔尔(Arcelor Mittal)开始，该公司定于周三早间公布2008年四季度利润情况。分析师对安赛乐米塔尔该季每股收益的平均预期值为44美分，较上年同期下降74%。该公司股票近期和波罗的海干散货航运指数一样也在反弹，较其去年11月的低点上涨了80%以上。两者虽然近期仍有上涨动能，但没有经济持续复苏的支撑，其上涨空间有限。Mark Gongloff 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月10日14:53', 'VFC'));VF Corp.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：VFCdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月10日14:53', 'MT'));安赛乐米塔尔英文名称：ArcelorMittal  (ADS)总部地点：卢森堡(Luxembourg)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：MTdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月10日14:53', 'MT.AE'));安赛乐米塔尔英文名称：ArcelorMittal总部地点：卢森堡(Luxembourg)上市地点：AMS股票代码：ISPAdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月10日14:53', 'MT.AE'));安赛乐米塔尔英文名称：ArcelorMittal总部地点：卢森堡(Luxembourg)上市地点：AMS股票代码：ISPA


Storm-tossed investors are finding hope at sea.The Baltic Exchange's Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping raw materials and is widely considered a leading economic indicator, has bounced 174% from a 22-year low last December. The rebound is the latest hint of a slight easing of the global recession.Shipping costs probably have seen their bottom for the cycle. But the Baltic Dry can send false economic signals, having done so at least twice in the past two years. It soared through the summer and fall of 2007, heralding nothing of the recession around the corner. It jumped to a record high in the spring of 2008, as the financial markets and economy were preparing for another swan dive.The Baltic Dry is heavily influenced by commodity demand from China. Snowstorms, the Olympic Games and other China-centric phenomena sparked the index's leaps and swoons last year. The current rally is largely due to China's rebuilding iron-ore inventories after the Lunar New Year holiday. Many observers doubt that the restocking will last much longer and see little appetite for commodities outside of China.Investors seeking confirmation of demand for commodities will need to look elsewhere. One place to start is the world's biggest steelmaker, Arcelor Mittal, due to report fourth-quarter 2008 earnings Wednesday morning.Analysts, on average, expect Arcelor Mittal to earn 44 cents a share, down 74% from a year ago. Like the Baltic Dry, Arcelor Mittal's stock has bounced recently, up more than 80% from its deep trough last November.Both rallies have short-term momentum but limited upside without a lasting economic recovery.Mark Gongloff